Insights into The Russian Ukrainian War

 

Source: BBC

FAST FORWARD: RUSSIA.

Public office holders are not public cheer leaders. They are decision makers, sovereignty defenders (both internal and external), human rights defenders. However, in the process of defending these human rights, they some times find themselves violating these rights too. Most importantly, they are human and possess the ability to be humane too, just like few of you are. And demons like most of you.

Problem is, as social scientists-in most cases,  academicians, scholars,  researchers and students alike are fixated or compelled to put out comprehensive analysis, breakdown, historical antecedents and future consequences of such invasion/incursion/encroachment and perhaps future annexation.  It is also important for the public to, whether explicitly or implicitly, with or without appropriate specialists knowledge of what exactly is in the mind of Putin, to react (on or offline). These types of actions from the public compel policy makers to make decisions that are pro people. In essence, when the society is engulfed by wild rogue leaders, it is in the interest of the masses to reject power mongering tyrannical confrontational leaders, be it in the Norrh or South.

Facts are;

Neither Russia, nor NATO is ready for war.

Yes, the incursion into Ukrainian sovereign territories before now, breaches international laws and treaties. However, because world leaders focuses more on the ideal perspective of what the world should be, and not what it is (realist)...at the end of the day, laws and policies fail to meet expectations, as they are utopic. This is so because we allow moral standards and justifications to ruined our collective understanding of the true trajectory of where the world is, and where we can and should be in the near or distance future.

As i was saying, non wants war. Wars have always been about interest. In the mind of Vladimir Putin, he is not fighting a war, he is pursuing the interests of Russia. And to achieve these quick or revolutionary goals, power is need. What is power? Power is the ability of Nation A to compel Nation B to do that which Nation A wouldn't do, if it has its way. I want to assume you think NATO is completely out to protect Ukrainian interests. If this is so-in doing so, it is also protecting it's own interests. And failure to do so, it is preparing a ground for further Russian free ride in Eastern Europe.

It is unwise for anyone, anybody at all to think this hard war is somehow remotely supported by the American military complex. This is not only delusional, it is myopic and unfound. You will understand more when you weigh the consequences of war between Ally and Axis powers. America and Europe have over the years invested in human and material resources to see that either continents advance technologically, and are not ready to ruin these achievements by going to war with Russia. America now, is wiser than 1914 and 1945. Collectively, America and Europe have nothing but loses to gain from any direct confrontation with Russia.

At the end of this game (war), there will be no winner or loser.

Russia might have covertly planted its puppets in both Donetsk and Luhansk who will later in the future attempt to pledge allegiance to Russia. In fact, I do think there will be a remarriage in the nearest future. This is an attempt to bring back the old economic glories USSR enjoyed post WWII.

There are those who think the best decision yet to be taken by the NORTH is to cut-off Russia from the SWIFT system. I do think actions such as these do not have future. Remember some Iranian banks were removed from SWIFT system in the years 2018 when US reimposed sanctions lifted by Obama. What about if Iran, Venezuela, north Korea, Cuba, and China decides to create just another system that works perfectly for them? In fact, by so doing, Russia and China are finally getting exactly what they want, and that is 'dedollarization of the world economy'.

MY PREVIOUS POST ON THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT

Europe can send military tanks to Eastern Europe to help Ukraine detere further Russian incursion, however, it cannot cut-off Russia, nor impose swift system like they did when Iran was on the table. This is so  because 40 percent of power consumed within European Union comes from Russia. The renegade USSR was also part of the allied forces, until it had chances to become the unipolar force of the world. With America being the stumbling block. It was a defeat for the defunct USSR, and America soon ruled the unipolar world.

Unlike Russia, China is not military advanced, however, it has the capability and capacity to successfully invade Taiwan and impose it's rules and the communist ideologies. This time, it is the Chinese socialism, not the communist manifesto. The most ridiculous initiatives on the path of America and Europe would be to severe ties with the elephant in the house which is China.

Whether cherished or not, China is like the spine of the world economy. In the American media scripts, China is likened to an adversary, in reality it is nothing but a threatening partner because of its growing economic and military wings, across the Americas, Asia, Europe and Africa. China is not only America's biggest business partner, China is also friend to Europe's biggest economic that is Germany. Anthony Blinkin and Lavrov will be meeting in Geneva this week after meeting the Ukrainian in Kiev. Both Taiwan and Ukraine have no trusted partners in Europe and America, the Kurds know better. International relations smells like international politics in wars and in diplomacy.